New Report Highlights Risk of Armed Conflict
A recent report from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) projects a heightened risk of armed conflict between India and Pakistan by 2026, primarily driven by escalating terrorist activities. This alarming assessment comes amidst broader concerns regarding international security and stability, particularly from a U.S. national security perspective.
According to the CFR’s year-end survey, a group of American foreign policy experts has categorized the likelihood of renewed conflict between India and Pakistan as a Tier II risk, indicating a moderate likelihood and impact. The report emphasizes that heightened terrorist activities could act as a catalyst for renewed hostilities.
Context of the Conflict
The tensions between India and Pakistan have existed for decades, often flaring up due to incidents linked to terrorism. In May 2025, the two nations were involved in a brief military conflict, described as a response to a terror attack that claimed the lives of 26 civilians in Pahalgam, with India conducting precision strikes on associated terror camps. These strikes were part of what was termed ‘Operation Sindoor.’
The CFR report delineates that the geopolitical landscape could become increasingly fraught, especially with changing U.S. foreign policies under the recent Trump administration. The administration purportedly sought to mediate and possibly resolve longstanding conflicts, including the India-Pakistan issue. However, experts argue that inconsistency in handling these conflicts may exacerbate hostilities.
Analysis of the CFR’s Survey Findings
Ranking of Conflicts
The CFR’s annual conflict risk assessment ranks global conflicts based on their likelihood and potential impact on U.S. interests, alongside identifying opportunities for preventive actions. The categorization places the India-Pakistan conflict in Tier II, indicating a moderate threat level compared to other international conflicts that are ranked higher due to their critical implications, such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
Concerns Over Terrorism
Experts expressing concern in the report outlined that terrorism remains a persistent issue, complicating the dynamics between India and Pakistan. They noted that various groups could increase their activities, taking advantage of political instability or military engagements. A rise in terrorism could thus create a substantial risk of a miscalculation, potentially leading to wider military engagements.
The report stated: “The renewed armed conflict between India and Pakistan due to heightened terrorist activity is alarming and merits serious consideration from policymakers.” This statement highlights the urgency placed on addressing potential flashpoints that could lead to conflict.
International and U.S. Responses
International stakeholders have been vocal about their concerns regarding the India-Pakistan relationship, urging both nations to engage in dialogue. U.S. policymakers have emphasized the importance of diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalating tensions in the region. A senior U.S. diplomat recently articulated, “The U.S. remains committed to facilitating dialogue between India and Pakistan, recognizing that sustained communication is vital for stability in South Asia.”
Furthermore, the report critiques the Trump administration’s approach to these foreign relations, suggesting that some actions might alienate crucial partners. The statement reflects a belief that greater emphasis on relationship-building is necessary to promote peace in the region.
Claims of Mediation
President Trump has previously asserted that his administration played a critical role in easing tensions between India and Pakistan, particularly following the military conflict in May. However, India has disputed this claim, stating that any ceasefire agreement resulted from mutual understanding rather than external intervention. An Indian government official mentioned, “The military communication between the two nations allowed for a cessation of hostilities and should not be misconstrued as reliant on external mediation.”
Other Global Conflict Risks Identified
Along with the India-Pakistan situation, the CFR report lists several other potential hotspots worldwide where conflicts could escalate in 2026. These include growing tensions between Israeli security forces and Palestinians in the West Bank, intensified military clashes in Ukraine, and risks associated with Iranian nuclear ambitions.
Aside from identifying these key conflicts, the report categorizes lesser threats in a Tier III category, which includes the risk of armed conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan due to resurgent militant activities.
Looking Ahead: Recommendations for Preventive Action
The survey emphasizes the importance of proactive measures to prevent potential conflicts from escalating. Experts recommend that both India and Pakistan participate in backchannel communication to mitigate misunderstandings and foster trust-building mechanisms. Engaging in multilateral discussions involving regional powers and international organizations could also facilitate a more stable environment.
The report advocates for consistent U.S. engagement, suggesting that successful mediation often requires sustained interest and involvement in South Asian affairs. Such engagement is critical to ensuring that lessons from past conflicts lead to improved policies and practices.
Final Thoughts and Implications
As the world observes these evolving dynamics in the India-Pakistan conflict, the implications of the CFR report are substantial. The potential re-emergence of armed conflict could not only impact the two nations but also reverberate through the international community, highlighting the intricate web of global interdependencies.
Ultimately, maintaining peace in South Asia is not merely a regional issue but a pivotal aspect of broader global stability. The insights from the CFR underscore the complex interplay of terrorism, diplomatic relations, and international politics, urging a proactive approach to minimize risks of conflict.